The crypto market is currently caught between bullish optimism and lingering caution. Bitcoin is struggling to hold recent gains, while Ethereum battles to decisively hold above $3,200. In stark contrast, Cardano's (ADA) price remains largely stagnant, failing to reclaim key levels seen in previous rallies.
ADA's price came close to the $1 mark in mid-2025, but repeated failures to break above this range signaled weakening upside momentum. A sharp price decline began in early October, but warning signs appeared earlier as DeFi volumes and Total Value Locked (TVL) started falling well before the sell-off, hinting at fading on-chain participation. ADA remained locked in a sustained downtrend throughout Q4 2025, with the structure turning increasingly bearish in recent sessions.
Data from DeFiLlama highlights a sharp slowdown in Cardano's on-chain activity. Active addresses have fallen significantly from peaks above 26,000 in the first week of the month to nearly 15,000 following a recent price rejection. Simultaneously, DEX trading volume has declined steeply from local highs near $7.42 million to lows around $1.66 million. While TVL has remained relatively stable, the contraction in address activity and trading volume points to waning trader engagement, suggesting market attention may be rotating away from ADA in the short term.
Technically, the 4-hour chart shows ADA compressing inside a descending triangle, with lower highs capped by a falling trendline and support holding near $0.38–$0.39. Bollinger Bands are tightening, signaling an imminent volatility move. A bullish breakout above $0.41–$0.42 could open upside toward $0.45 and $0.48. However, a breakdown below $0.38 may drag the price toward $0.35 or lower, keeping the broader bearish structure intact.
Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook is cautiously constructive but hinges on key levels. After sliding toward the $0.33–$0.35 zone in December, ADA rebounded sharply in early January, briefly testing $0.42–$0.43 before pulling back. The $0.35 level has emerged as a critical support; a sustained break below would expose $0.30 as the next major downside target. On the upside, a clean breakout and daily closes above $0.43 would likely open the door to a move toward the psychologically important $0.50 level.
The most probable scenario for 2026 is a gradual recovery rather than an immediate parabolic rally. In a stable or moderately bullish market, Cardano could work its way into the $0.55–$0.75 range over the course of the year. A move to $1 would require a clear trend reversal and strong participation, neither of which is currently visible. The broader structure currently suggests accumulation rather than distribution, but failure to hold $0.35 would signal continued weakness.
