Goldman Sachs has released its 2026 global equity outlook, projecting an 11% total return (including dividends) for global stocks over the next 12 months. The forecast, detailed in a report by chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer, anticipates a 2.8% global GDP growth and additional modest policy easing from the US Federal Reserve. The firm expects returns to be driven more by fundamental profit growth than by rising valuations, with specific targets set for major indices: S&P 500 at 7,600 (11% return), STOXX 600 at 625 (7% return), Japan's TOPIX at 3,600 (4% return), and MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan at 825 (12% return).
Concurrently, analysis from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has turned negative, currently standing at -0.02 in early 2026. This marks a significant shift from the largely positive correlation observed historically. Analysts attribute this structural change to several factors: spot Bitcoin ETFs shifting demand toward allocation-driven inflows, reduced leverage risks in derivatives markets, macro liquidity rotating toward commodities, and Bitcoin's price action becoming more influenced by internal supply dynamics than equity market sentiment.
In a separate analysis, investment firm VanEck signals that Q1 2026 is entering a rare risk-on phase, supported by clearer fiscal policy, steadier monetary direction, and shrinking US deficits relative to GDP. However, VanEck notes that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle broke in 2025, creating short-term forecasting uncertainty. Despite this, analysts like Justin d'Anethan observe that excess leverage has been flushed out, creating a healthier market foundation. Tim Sun of HashKey Group adds that regulatory clarity, fiscal support, and geopolitical pressures are aligning to potentially benefit crypto markets in the first half of 2026.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $91,000, having increased nearly 2% in the last 24 hours. The combined analyses suggest a complex landscape where traditional equities are expected to rise steadily while Bitcoin's relationship with those markets has decoupled, potentially setting its own independent trajectory based on crypto-specific fundamentals and macro forces like sovereign diversification into alternative assets.
