The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, is in a state of tense anticipation ahead of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today. Bitcoin's price has been range-bound between $91,200 and $91,400, while Ethereum holds above $3,100 and Solana hovers near $140. The broader market's direction is expected to be determined by the inflation report, scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC.
Analysts highlight the CPI as the key factor shaping market sentiment this week. Current expectations are for both headline and core inflation to come in at 2.7% year-on-year. Market participants are pricing in a 60% chance of a dovish result (lower-than-expected inflation) and a 40% chance of a hawkish surprise (higher inflation).
On-chain data reveals significant accumulation by large Bitcoin holders, or "whales," who have added over 56,000 BTC since mid-December, even as retail investors sold during the recent consolidation phase. Technically, Bitcoin is trading within a tight Bollinger Band compression, a setup that often precedes strong directional moves. The coin remains above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating underlying trend strength.
Analyst Widodo identifies $93,997 as a critical resistance level. A daily close above this could propel Bitcoin toward the $94,250–$95,000 range. Conversely, failure to break resistance could see downside risks, with potential support around $90,600 and $88,000. A dovish CPI print could push Bitcoin to $92,800–$93,200, potentially triggering over $350 million in short liquidations and accelerating a move toward $95,000. A hawkish result, however, may cause Bitcoin to drop below $90,000, with long liquidations potentially driving the price down to $88,000.
Beyond the data itself, analysts note that rising political tensions between former President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could fuel sudden price swings, even if the CPI meets expectations.
