Bitcoin's price trajectory has notably diverged from the growth of the global M2 money supply at the start of 2026, challenging a long-standing macroeconomic framework used to explain its bull cycles. Historically, Bitcoin's price appreciation has closely tracked periods of accelerating global liquidity expansion. However, recent data shows Bitcoin's year-over-year growth turning negative while global M2 growth exceeds 10%, deepening a decoupling trend that began in mid-2025.
Fidelity Digital Assets maintains a constructive view, arguing in a January report that the divergence is likely temporary. The firm points to the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening and renewed global monetary easing as supportive conditions, suggesting Bitcoin's fixed supply will allow it to absorb excess capital once liquidity flows normalize.
Other analysts offer contrasting interpretations. Market commentator MartyParty suggests, using a 50-day lag model, that recent price weakness may be a delayed adjustment and that Bitcoin could rebound to realign with liquidity trends. Conversely, analyst Mister Crypto views such decoupling periods as potential signals of market exhaustion, often appearing near major tops before multi-year bear phases.
A more controversial explanation comes from Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. Edwards attributes the disconnect to the emerging threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin's cryptography. He argues that Bitcoin entered a "Quantum Event Horizon" in 2025, where the timeframe for a potential quantum breakthrough is now shorter than the estimated time to upgrade the Bitcoin network. This, he suggests, is causing capital allocators and long-term holders to reposition assets to account for this non-zero risk, which could undermine trust if old wallets were compromised.
Amid this analytical split, Bitcoin spot ETFs have faced weak demand, with a net outflow of $681 million reported last week, though the new week has begun with modest inflows. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin's price was floating around $92,100.
