China concluded 2025 with a historic trade surplus of $1.19 trillion, rounded by markets to $1.2 trillion, setting a global record for any economy. According to data from China's General Administration of Customs, exports in December climbed 6.6% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms, significantly surpassing the 3% estimate and outpacing November's 5.9% increase. Imports for the month grew 5.7%, beating expectations of 0.9%.
For the full year, exports rose 5.5% while imports remained flat, resulting in a surplus 20% larger than in 2024. This performance defied analyst expectations of a slowdown due to geopolitical pressures and weaker global demand, highlighting China's resilient manufacturing capacity and export efficiency.
The data revealed a continued contraction in trade with the United States. China's exports to the U.S. dropped 30% in December year-over-year, extending losses for a ninth consecutive month, while imports declined 29%. For all of 2025, exports to the U.S. slid 20% and imports fell 14.6%. In contrast, exports to the European Union rose 12% in December, and shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations increased 11%.
The massive surplus has drawn international scrutiny. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged Beijing in December to rely less on exports and boost domestic consumption. The surplus persists against a difficult domestic backdrop, with the economy under deflationary pressure from a deep real estate downturn and weak job market. Consumer prices were flat through 2025, missing the official 2% target.
Despite a one-year trade truce agreed upon in October 2025 between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, which rolled back some export controls and tariffs, tensions remain. The record surplus is expected to intensify global debates on trade imbalances and may influence future policy negotiations and currency markets.
