Crypto research firm Delphi Digital has published a 2026 outlook predicting that decentralized perpetual futures exchanges (Perp DEXs) are poised to continue taking significant market share from traditional finance (TradFi) products. The firm argues that decentralized infrastructure is structurally more efficient than legacy systems, which it describes as fragmented and expensive to operate.
Delphi Digital envisions a future where Perp DEXs evolve into comprehensive financial hubs. "Now Hyperliquid is building native lending. Perp DEXs could become brokerage, exchange, custodian, bank, and clearinghouse all at once," the firm wrote in a social media post. It noted that competitors such as Aster, Lighter, and Paradex are "racing to catch up" in this vertical integration.
The data supports a strong growth trajectory. According to a CoinGecko report, the market share of Perp DEXs rose from 2.1% in January 2023 to a new all-time high of 11.7% in November 2025. Furthermore, the cumulative trading volume of Perp DEXs tripled during 2025, reaching $12.09 trillion, up from $4.1 trillion at the start of the year. Data from DefiLlama shows that about $7.9 trillion, or 65% of the total Perp DEX volume, was generated in 2025 alone.
This growth is attributed to key structural advantages: non-custodial trading, on-chain transparency, reduced counterparty risk, and significantly lower fees—often 20-50% less than top-tier centralized exchanges (CEXs). Delphi Digital projects that if current trends hold, Perp DEXs could command over 25% of the total derivatives market.
The growing adoption is also drawing institutional analysis. In a December research note, Cantor Fitzgerald suggested that the leading DEX token, Hyperliquid (HYPE), could surpass $200 in the next 10 years. This prediction assumes a 15% compound annual growth rate and a token buyback program that would reduce the total supply to 666 million tokens.
Despite the rapid growth, the Perp DEX volume of $12.09 trillion in 2025 pales in comparison to the notional value of outstanding over-the-counter derivatives, which reached $846 trillion in June 2025 according to the Bank for International Settlements. Challenges remain, including user experience complexity and an evolving regulatory landscape. However, the data-driven momentum suggests a sustained shift towards a more decentralized, transparent, and user-controlled future for crypto derivatives.
