Prominent cryptocurrency analyst and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has forecast a significant Bitcoin rally for 2026, directly linking the potential surge to an anticipated expansion of U.S. dollar liquidity driven by government policies. Hayes argues that Bitcoin's stagnation in 2025 was a "liquidity story," with the cryptocurrency declining 14.40% while gold soared 44.40% and tech stocks outperformed.
Hayes's core thesis is that "dollar liquidity must expand" for Bitcoin to "get its groove back." He points to several catalysts for a "drastic increase" in liquidity in 2026, including the expansion of the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet through "money printing," falling mortgage rates, and commercial banks becoming more willing to lend to U.S. government-backed strategic industries like artificial intelligence (AI) and defense. "The US will continue to flex its military muscle, and to do so requires the production of weapons of mass destruction financed by the commercial banking system," Hayes stated.
The analyst explains that while dollar liquidity contracted in 2025, hurting crypto, the Nasdaq remained resilient because AI had been "nationalized" by both China and America. He suggests that through executive orders and government investment, capital is being directed into AI-related sectors irrespective of market signals, supporting tech stocks which delivered a 24.6% return in 2025.
Hayes views Bitcoin as "monetary technology" whose value is intrinsically linked to fiat currency debasement. "This alone guarantees that Bitcoin’s value is greater than zero. But for Bitcoin to be worth close to 100,000 United States of American Dollars requires continuous fiat monetary debasement," he added. He bases his bullish outlook on historical patterns where periods of quantitative easing, such as after the 2008 and 2020 crises, preceded substantial Bitcoin rallies.
In terms of personal investment strategy, Hayes reveals he has increased positions in stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet, which provide leveraged exposure to Bitcoin through corporate treasury holdings. He also views recent technical challenges for privacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash (ZEC) as a potential buying opportunity.
