Bitcoin's 2026 Rally Driven by North American Trading Hours, Reversing Late-2025 Trend

2 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Shift to US-hour buying signals potential reversal in ETF flow trends from late 2025.
  • Global demand driving US-session gains, not domestic buyers, as indicated by Coinbase's negative premium.
  • Investors should monitor if this US-hour strength marks a new structural trend or a short-term rebalancing.

Bitcoin (BTC) has begun 2026 with a strong performance, with its price increases predominantly concentrated during North American trading hours. This marks a significant reversal from the market dynamics observed in the final months of 2025, where the same session was a source of selling pressure.

Market analyst James Van Straten highlighted that Bitcoin briefly reached the $97,000 level, marking an approximate 10% increase since the start of the year. Data reveals that the cumulative gain during North American trading hours alone was about 8%. In contrast, gains during the European session were limited to 3%, while the Asian trading session acted as a drag on overall performance.

This pattern is the complete opposite of the trend seen in late 2025. In late November, Bitcoin lost roughly 20% of its value during North American hours, dropping to around $80,000. Throughout the fourth quarter, selling pressure frequently intensified with the opening of U.S. markets, coinciding with daily outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Analysts note that the current strong returns occurring immediately after U.S. market open are particularly notable, as this was the same time period where Bitcoin showed its weakest performance over the preceding six months.

Importantly, the analysis clarifies that price movements during the U.S. session do not exclusively reflect demand from U.S. investors. Price formation during these hours aggregates activity from both U.S.-based exchanges and global platforms like Binance. This dynamic can lead to situations where strong gains are recorded during the U.S. session while a negative premium on Coinbase persists, suggesting the underlying demand may be driven primarily by global investors outside the United States.

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