Cryptocurrency analyst Gert van Lagen has projected that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $400,000 by replicating historical post-halving technical patterns. In a detailed analysis shared on November 21, van Lagen cited long-term logarithmic regression channels, noting that Bitcoin is currently trading below the channel's midline. He anticipates a breakout toward the higher boundary, potentially reaching between $350,000 and $400,000, based on patterns observed after the 2013, 2017, and 2021 halvings.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin's price has surged above $97,000, marking an eight-week high and fueling trader optimism for a near-term target of $100,000. Prediction market platform Polymarket shows traders assigning a 74% probability that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by January 31, 2026. This bullish sentiment is supported by significant institutional activity, with Bitcoin ETFs recording $843 million in net inflows—the largest single-day total of the year—which has accelerated Bitcoin's upward momentum.
Analyst YoungHoon Kim highlighted a key metric supporting reduced selling pressure: weekly exchange flows of Bitcoin have fallen dramatically from over 100,000 coins during past peaks to below 12,800 coins currently, despite prices trading between $93,000 and $110,000. This decrease in available supply on exchanges, combined with substantial ETF inflows, is creating a favorable environment for continued price appreciation.
Van Lagen's $400,000 prediction, while ambitious, builds on historical precedent where post-halving periods have typically triggered significant price surges. "Bitcoin has followed a similar pattern after every halving... [to] $350,000 – $400,000," van Lagen stated. If achieved, such a dramatic uptrend could trigger major market shifts, affecting both individual trader strategies and institutional investment approaches, while potentially inciting increased volatility and speculative trading activity across the cryptocurrency sector.
