Bitcoin's recent rally has stalled at a critical technical resistance level of approximately $97,600, raising the risk of a price correction. The cryptocurrency had previously surged, holding above $96,000 and pushing the total crypto market capitalization to $3.25 trillion. However, the advance has lost momentum at a high-confluence resistance zone.
This resistance is defined by the intersection of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, the upper boundary of Bitcoin's broader trading channel, and a higher-time-frame Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP). Technical analysts note that such stacked resistance zones often attract selling pressure and can trigger rejections. A key concern is the lack of strong follow-through volume during the rally, suggesting weak buyer conviction and increasing the probability of a rotation back toward channel support levels, potentially near $95,000.
Concurrently, macroeconomic fragility is emerging as a headwind. Analysts warn that Bitcoin has yet to price in the risk of escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which could lead to surges in oil prices and broader market volatility. While the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has turned neutral at 54, external risk sentiment has softened, with traditional safe-haven assets like metals pulling back.
Adding to the cautious outlook, data shows Bitcoin's aggregate Open Interest (OI) has crashed by 30% since October, indicating a significant reduction in leveraged speculative positions. The immediate technical level to watch is $95,000; a clean hold could keep the bullish structure intact, while a break below may open the door for a deeper pullback within the established trading range.
