On-chain analysts and prediction market watchers are scrutinizing the activity of several large crypto wallets, raising questions about potential insider information and market-moving influence. The focus centers on two distinct but significant whale activities: suspiciously timed bets on geopolitical events via Polymarket and a massive, leveraged bullish position across major cryptocurrencies.
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, is at the center of an insider investigation. Analysts have identified several whale wallets that placed highly confident bets just before the reported arrests of individuals linked to Venezuelan information leaks, a situation mentioned by former US President Donald Trump. One primary wallet realized gains of 194,741.73 USDC before its account was deleted. Two of the three closely monitored wallets have gone inactive for 11 days, while the third, known as Sbet365, has shifted focus to a new trending market: betting on the deposition of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei by January 31.
The Iran prediction market has seen over $28 million in volume, with the Sbet365 wallet accumulating 'yes' tokens at an average price of $0.20, positioning for a large payout. The token price recently dipped to $0.17 amid a lack of decisive US action. Despite the scrutiny, Polymarket is disputing the earnings of some whales involved in the Venezuela bets, and no direct connection between the deleted accounts and the arrests has been proven. The pattern of funding and placing bets immediately before real-world events, however, continues to fuel the insider narrative. Not all bets are successful; one trader lost over $40,000 on a bet expecting US strikes against Iran by January 14.
Simultaneously, a separate and well-known crypto whale has captured market attention by opening enormous leveraged long positions worth nearly $850 million. Shared by analyst Ash Crypto, the positions are spread across Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL), signaling a highly bullish conviction. The breakdown shows approximately $96 million on Bitcoin with 5x leverage, a massive $676 million on Ethereum also at 5x leverage, and a riskier $74 million on Solana with 10x leverage.
The scale and timing of this move are unusual, and the trader, often labeled an "insider-whale" due to a history of well-timed trades during major market movements, has already shown significant unrealized profits. The community reaction has been overwhelmingly bullish, with many viewing it as a strong confidence signal. However, analysts caution that the highly leveraged nature of these positions carries substantial risk; a market downturn could trigger forced liquidations, creating cascading sell pressure.
This dual phenomenon underscores the outsized influence whales continue to wield in the crypto market, capable of shifting sentiment based on on-chain data and prediction market activity. It highlights a market driven by a complex mix of data analysis, psychology, and persistent speculation about information asymmetry.
