Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum Bank AG has issued a groundbreaking conditional forecast, predicting Bitcoin's price could surge to between $350,000 and $400,000. This projection is directly tied to the United States establishing definitive regulatory frameworks for the cryptocurrency sector, such as passing the CLARITY Act or a Bitcoin Act that could authorize national-level purchases.
The bank's analysis argues that clear U.S. regulation would serve as a powerful global signal, reducing systemic uncertainty and unlocking unprecedented institutional and sovereign adoption. Sygnum emphasizes that American regulatory leadership often sets a de facto worldwide standard, and decisive action from U.S. lawmakers could catalyze a new phase of capital allocation toward Bitcoin.
The report delves into the mechanics of potential sovereign adoption, identifying two primary categories of nations likely to consider adding BTC to their reserve assets. Pragmatic economies with strong, diversified financial systems—such as Japan and Germany—may view Bitcoin as a strategic, non-correlated asset for portfolio diversification and technological leadership. Nations facing currency instability—including Brazil and Poland—might adopt Bitcoin as a modern hedge against local economic turmoil and inflation.
A coordinated move by several countries into the Bitcoin market, with its fixed and limited supply, would create substantial buy-side pressure, forming the core driver behind Sygnum's lofty valuation model. The bank contextualizes this by noting that if a coalition of nations allocated even a small percentage of their multi-trillion dollar reserves to Bitcoin, the price impact would be profound.
Parallel to this forecast, Sygnum's report highlights the accelerating convergence of digital assets with traditional finance through tokenization. The bank projects that up to 10% of new bonds issued by major financial institutions in 2026 could utilize a tokenized format, representing ownership on a blockchain for increased efficiency, liquidity, and transparency.
The timeline for these developments remains uncertain and hinges on slow-moving U.S. legislative processes. However, Sygnum posits that the key impacts of such regulation would include enhanced investor protection, confident institutional participation, global standardization of rules, and increased long-term market stability.
