A stark divergence in analyst views has emerged regarding the recent cryptocurrency price rebound, with blockchain data firms Santiment and CryptoQuant presenting contrasting interpretations of market conditions for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP.
Santiment's Brian Quinlivan points to a classic bullish setup, noting that crypto prices are rising while trader sentiment remains skeptical. "Historically, crypto markets tend to rise when sentiment drops back to neutral or slightly negative," Quinlivan explained. He highlighted that despite Bitcoin approaching recent highs, traders remain hesitant, a pattern that has often supported healthier, sustained rallies. Santiment's social media sentiment tracking showed a brief spike in FOMO earlier in the week that quickly faded, with prices climbing only after enthusiasm cooled.
Bitcoin's recent performance is notable for its divergence from traditional markets. While the S&P 500 faced pressure, Bitcoin moved higher, breaking from its recent correlation with U.S. equities. Santiment data indicates Bitcoin lagged behind both stocks and gold since mid-December, creating potential for a catch-up move. Analysts suggest this gap could support a push toward the $100,000 level if sentiment remains controlled.
Ethereum shows early signs of overheating, according to Santiment's MVRV metric, which indicates both short-term and long-term holders are in profit—a condition that has preceded short-term pullbacks. While ETH could continue climbing if Bitcoin leads, the data suggests BTC currently offers a slightly better short-term setup.
XRP has seen one of the sharpest jumps in online optimism, with bullish posts clearly outnumbering bearish ones. Past data indicates such spikes are often followed by brief corrections, making short-term trading riskier. However, the longer-term picture appears steadier, with XRP remaining well below its mid-2024 highs and long-term holders still underwater, which may reduce downside risk for patient investors.
In stark contrast, CryptoQuant warns the rebound is a 'bear market rally'—a temporary bounce within a broader downtrend. The firm's head of research, Julio Moreno, stated the rally is unfolding against a backdrop of continued demand contraction. Bitcoin's 21% rise since November 21 came after it fell around 19% and broke below its 365-day moving average, a key level CryptoQuant views as the dividing line between bull and bear markets.
CryptoQuant notes concerning similarities to 2022, when Bitcoin also rallied strongly after dropping below the 365-day moving average, only to fail near that level and resume its decline. Bitcoin is now approaching that same long-term average again, currently near $101,000, but has not yet reclaimed it. In past bear markets, similar failures were followed by renewed downside.
Demand indicators remain weak despite marginal improvements. The Bitcoin Coinbase Price Premium briefly turned positive, suggesting short bursts of U.S. spot buying, but not sustained demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have paused net selling after selling roughly 54,000 BTC over a 30-day period in November, but this stabilization doesn't amount to renewed accumulation. Year-to-date ETF inflows total about 3,800 BTC—in line with the same period last year but well below typical bull-market recovery levels.
On-chain data shows spot demand is still contracting, with apparent demand metrics indicating a contraction of 67,000 Bitcoin in the last 30 days, remaining negative since November 28, 2025. Simultaneously, Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have increased to a seven-day average of around 39,000 BTC—the highest level since late November—historically signaling growing sell-side pressure after relief rallies.
