Bitcoin's price action near the $95,000 level is drawing intense scrutiny from chart analysts, with one prominent comparison raising alarms about a potential repeat of the 2022 market collapse. Analyst Tryrex (@Tryrexcrypto) shared a detailed TradingView chart that overlays the price patterns from April 2022 with the current structure in January 2026.
The chart highlights an uncomfortably similar sequence: Bitcoin makes a peak, sells off sharply, settles into a prolonged consolidation phase, and then experiences a breakout attempt that fails, leading to a renewed downtrend. In 2022, after hitting an all-time high, BTC price dropped roughly 45% over several weeks before entering a tight, four-month consolidation. A subsequent breakout above this range quickly reversed, becoming a 'fakeout' that led to a further 19% drop.
Tryrex applies this lens to the current market, noting that Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since its recent peak, followed by about two months of sideways movement. The price has now pushed upward into a key resistance band, but the analyst questions the move due to slow upside progress. "Breakouts that do not accelerate can lose energy fast," the analysis warns, pointing to the overhead resistance zone as a critical hurdle.
The immediate focus is the $95,000 level, with BTC hovering around $95,515. The chart suggests that a failure to hold and recover above this zone could trigger a pullback toward the mid-$80,000 region—a drop of approximately 11%. Separate technical analysis from CryptoPotato corroborates the significance of this area, identifying the $95K band as aligning with the 100-day moving average, a zone that has rejected price on previous bounces.
On-chain data provides a counterbalancing bullish signal, with exchange reserves continuing to shrink. This indicates fewer BTC are available for immediate sale, suggesting supply is tightening as coins move to cold storage. While this supports a medium-term bullish thesis, analysts caution it does not prevent short-term corrections when price tests major technical resistance like the $95K ceiling.
The market now faces a binary outcome: a confirmed breakout and hold above $95K could ignite a rally toward $106K and signal a new bull run. Conversely, a failure and breakdown could see a corrective pullback to the $90K region or lower, validating the fakeout risk pattern observed in 2022.
