Despite significant price volatility in 2025, the underlying infrastructure of the cryptocurrency industry saw substantial improvements in user access, regulatory clarity, and institutional integration, according to separate year-end reports from major exchanges Binance and Kraken. Both firms highlight a market transitioning from hype-driven cycles to one increasingly shaped by structural pillars and macro-economic forces.
Binance Research's 2025 Recap noted that while Bitcoin (BTC) swung between a low of $76,000 in April and a new all-time high of over $126,000 in October, the year was marked by critical advancements. Regulatory progress, including the U.S. GENIUS Act and Europe's MiCA framework, helped establish stablecoins as "essential global settlement infrastructure." The report emphasized that stablecoins are becoming a default medium of exchange within crypto and a practical rail for cross-border payments.
On the institutional front, Binance reported that regulated investment vehicles like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) expanded, reinforcing them as the preferred institutional access route. Over 190 public companies adopted digital asset strategies for their balance sheets. Furthermore, five major U.S. banks—Bank of America, JPMorgan, BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo, and Citibank—are now launching or piloting Bitcoin-backed credit products, allowing clients to borrow cash while holding BTC long-term.
Kraken's 2026 Outlook, authored by Global Economist Thomas Perfumo, argues that the next major market adjustment will be less about price and more about "plumbing." He points to the growing, yet complex, role of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which represented nearly $44 billion of net spot demand in 2025. However, market performance "disappointed relative to expectations" as long-term holders supplied much of the inventory, absorbing enormous inflows without the reflexive upside of prior cycles.
Perfumo identifies modest growth expectations, sticky inflation, and a slower pace of policy easing as key macro constraints. He warns that periods of calm can mask deferred volatility, especially if liquidity conditions tighten. Kraken also sees stablecoin legislation and broader market structure reform as pivotal structural pillars for 2026.
Looking beyond Bitcoin, both Kraken and analysts from Standard Chartered flagged tokenization and DeFi token economics as longer-term drivers. Kraken noted that tokenized financial assets have grown sharply, and the tokenization of widely held assets like large-cap U.S. equities could open new sources of global demand and on-chain settlement activity.
The throughline from both exchanges is that 2026 may look less like a familiar crypto cycle and more like a macro-driven stress test, where market structure—how liquidity enters and concentrates—matters as much as price.
