Bitcoin's derivatives market has flipped from bearish to bullish sentiment, with the average monthly net taker volume turning positive for the first time in weeks. After dropping to a negative $489 million, indicating strong sell-side dominance, the metric has recovered to a positive $39 million. This shift, calculated using a 30-day moving average to reduce market noise, suggests futures buyers are regaining control and easing the sustained selling pressure that had been weighing on BTC's price.
This resurgence in futures demand is occurring alongside a period of limited spot market activity. While there have been minor inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, they haven't generated significant upward price momentum. Consequently, derivatives are currently playing a crucial role in supporting the market structure and stabilizing prices.
Concurrently, technical analysis points to a potential "real breakout" toward $107,000. Bitcoin has confirmed a breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle pattern, successfully retesting the former resistance near $95,000 as support—a classic sign of a valid breakout. The pattern's measured upside target is near $107,000. Furthermore, the daily chart is approaching a bullish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), a signal that previously preceded a 17% price advance over the following month.
Fundamental on-chain data reinforces the bullish thesis. Selling pressure from long-term holders (coins dormant for over five years) has materially decreased. The 90-day average of spent outputs from these "OG" holders has declined from a peak near 2,300 BTC earlier in the cycle toward the 1,000 BTC level. Analyst DarkFrost noted, "Their selling pressure, which can sometimes be massive, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now seems to lean more toward holding rather than distribution." This aligns with the largest net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges since December 2024.
Macroeconomic signals also lean bullish. Bitcoin's correlation with gold has turned negative, a historical precursor that has, on average, led to 56% BTC rallies within two months. Analysts like Bitwise's Matt Hougan argue that expanding global M2 money supply, supported by the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening, could position Bitcoin to outperform gold in 2026 and fuel a sustained breakout.
