A former senior analyst at the Bank of England has issued a stark warning that an official government confirmation of intelligent extraterrestrial life could unleash unprecedented financial market chaos, with Bitcoin (BTC) potentially emerging as a critical safe-haven asset. Helen McCaw, who worked on financial stability at the UK central bank until 2012, wrote directly to Governor Andrew Bailey urging the institution to stress-test for such an "unthinkable" event.
McCaw predicts an "ontological shock"—a profound psychological upheaval that could undermine collective confidence in reality and institutions. She argues this could lead to extreme market volatility, bank runs, payment system failures, and civil unrest, potentially within hours of an announcement. Her concerns are partly rooted in ongoing U.S. declassification efforts regarding Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs), noting that several senior American officials have recently indicated belief in the possibility of non-human intelligence.
In this scenario, traditional safe havens like gold could falter if alien technology suggests a future of abundant space-mined precious metals. McCaw posits that Bitcoin's decentralized and government-independent nature could make it uniquely attractive to investors questioning the legitimacy of fiat currencies and traditional financial systems. Prediction markets are already pricing in a non-zero chance of such an event, with platforms like Polymarket assigning roughly a 14% probability of an official disclosure before 2027.
The Bank of England has not officially adopted McCaw's warning, and her views are personal. However, her underlying logic—that financial systems are fragile to trust shocks—has resonated within the crypto community, where some see it as a unique bullish case for Bitcoin. McCaw's 2024 white paper for the Sol Foundation further argued that governments must overcome "cognitive dissonance" about UAPs and coordinate globally to prepare for the potential cascading effects if the "unthinkable becomes undeniable."
