Netflix is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Tuesday, January 20, 2026, after the market closes, followed by a conference call. Wall Street analysts are forecasting strong year-over-year growth, with consensus estimates calling for earnings per share (EPS) of $0.55, a jump of roughly 28–30% from the same period last year. Revenue is projected to reach approximately $12 billion, representing a 16.8% increase.
The report arrives at a pivotal moment for the stock, which has traded under significant pressure in recent months. NFLX shares are down 33% from their 52-week high of $134.12, currently trading near $88. This decline is largely attributed to uncertainty surrounding the company's reported interest in acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery assets—a potential deal valued around $83 billion—and legal challenges from Paramount, which claims its own bid was superior.
Beyond headline numbers, operating margins remain a critical focus. In the previous quarter, Netflix reported margins of 28.2%, well below the 31.5% estimate, which triggered a sharp selloff. Investors will be looking for evidence that margin pressures have eased. Additionally, with Netflix no longer reporting quarterly subscriber figures, 2026 guidance takes center stage. Markets want clarity on whether ad-tier momentum and international growth can continue to offset a saturated U.S. market.
Analysts point to strong subscriber engagement driven by the final season of Stranger Things during the holiday period. However, Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese believes the quarterly strength extends beyond a single show. Survey data indicates subscriber numbers held steady even after the show ended, with users staying for other content like Bridgerton and upcoming WWE programming.
The advertising opportunity is highlighted as a key growth driver. Reese notes Netflix runs the lowest ad load among all streaming services, creating a less intrusive experience. Retention among ad-tier subscribers is improving each quarter, and the company has room to slightly increase ad load without losing users. This tier is becoming a core driver of sustainable revenue growth.
Options traders expect a 7.78% move in either direction following the earnings announcement, higher than the four-quarter average of 5.82%. Wall Street currently maintains a "Moderate Buy" consensus on Netflix stock, with an average price target of around $127.23, suggesting significant upside from current levels.
