The price of Pump.fun's native token, PUMP, is at a critical technical juncture following a recent surge and subsequent pullback. Earlier this week, PUMP price rallied, signaling a potential breakout from a cup and saucer pattern that projected a 57% upside move from $0.00264 to a target of $0.00420. However, the price failed to follow through, introducing uncertainty about the sustainability of the bullish momentum.
Market sentiment remains divided, with smart money activity providing a key source of support. Data from Nansen indicates that smart money wallets—controlled by experienced investors, institutions, and whales—accumulated roughly 48 million PUMP tokens over the past week, increasing their total holdings by 5.8%. This strategic accumulation during a period of uncertainty suggests confidence in higher future prices and could help stabilize the token to prevent a deeper decline.
Despite this institutional support, a major cautionary signal has emerged from on-chain data. Network activity shows a sharp 74% decline in new PUMP addresses over a 48-hour period, dropping from 8,570 to just 2,201. This significant reduction in new wallet creation signals fading retail interest and a lack of fresh capital inflows, which are critical for sustaining rallies in emerging altcoins like PUMP.
From a technical analysis perspective, the broader structure remains cautiously optimistic. Analysts note that PUMP recently broke above a long-term descending trendline that had capped price action for months, a significant shift that often turns former resistance into support. The token is currently holding above a key demand zone between $0.0020 and $0.0022, which has been tested multiple times without a decisive breakdown. Analyst Crypto Patel identifies this as a "bullish expansion zone" and projects potential upside targets of $0.00872, $0.015, and $0.026—implying moves of 500% to 1000% from current levels if momentum resumes.
The immediate outlook hinges on key support and resistance levels. A successful reclaim of the $0.00278 resistance as support could reignite the breakout rally. Conversely, if the $0.00264 support fails, PUMP could slide toward $0.00242, with further weakness potentially leading to a breakdown toward $0.00212, which would invalidate the current bullish thesis. A daily close below the critical $0.0020 level would significantly weaken the bullish structure.
