Prominent crypto traders and analysts are engaged in a heated debate over whether Bitcoin is currently in a bear market, offering contrasting technical and macroeconomic perspectives. Crypto whale Garrett Jin, in a detailed social media analysis, strongly refuted the bear market label, arguing that comparisons to the 2022 downturn are flawed.
Jin's macro argument centers on a fundamentally different liquidity environment. He contends that while the primary goal of global capital in early 2022 was risk aversion during a tightening cycle, the current U.S. liquidity index has broken both short-term and long-term downtrends, signaling the start of a new uptrend. Technically, he acknowledges a break below a weekly ascending channel but suggests this could be a "bear trap," with a high likelihood of price returning within the channel. He points to strong consolidation in the $62,000–$80,850 range as offering more upside than downside risk for long positions.
Jin outlined three conditions necessary for a true structural bear market: a new inflation shock or major geopolitical crisis on the scale of 2022, central banks returning to interest rate hikes or balance sheet reduction, and a permanent price drop below $80,850. He asserts that declaring a bear market without these conditions is speculation. Crucially, he highlights a shift in investor structure from the leveraged retail-driven "crypto-specific" bear market of 2022 to today's more mature phase dominated by institutional actors, characterized by locked supply and stable underlying demand.
Trader Cristian Chifoi presents a different, time-focused framework. He argues that calling a regime shift based solely on Bitcoin's 36% drawdown from its peak is reactive. Instead, he emphasizes watching the behavior after the first meaningful rebound. His analysis hinges on key "seasonality windows," with a primary decision point around January 20, extending into late March or early April.
Chifoi outlines two potential paths: a rally into January 20 to set a pivot high followed by a continuation down, or the formation of a pivot low around that date leading to a push higher. At the time of writing, he leaned toward the pivot low scenario. His bear-market confirmation depends on whether any bounce shows sustained strength or fails over time, potentially even if Bitcoin makes a new high into the $115,000–$120,000 range before stalling. He warns that a push over $100,000 could still be a "dead cat bounce" if it lacks follow-through.
Chifoi positions most market participants into two extreme camps—those calling for a supercycle and those asserting a bear market began in October 2025—and suggests both could be wrong if Bitcoin prints a new high before selling off after April. His own risk case involves a new high followed by a sustained decline into late 2026 or early 2027.
