Cryptocurrency analysts are increasingly avoiding firm Bitcoin price targets following a history of missed predictions, adopting a more cautious language despite underlying long-term optimism. Scott Melker, host of The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, notes that while bold forecasts have given way to careful language, the fundamental belief in Bitcoin's potential remains intact. He attributes this shift to reputational risk after aggressive calls from firms like Bitwise, VanEck, Galaxy, and Bernstein, as well as analysts like Arthur Hayes and Peter Brandt, failed to materialize in past cycles.
Recent market performance underscores the cautious mood. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $394.68 million in net outflows last Friday, ending a four-day inflow streak of over $1.8 billion, primarily driven by outflows from Fidelity's FBTC fund. Bitcoin's price has weakened, dropping from a recent high of $95,420 to $90,710—a decline of about 3.8%. Over the past year, Bitcoin has fallen roughly 15%, underperforming 95% of the top 100 crypto assets. It currently trades below its 200-day moving average and has posted only 14 green days in the last month.
Geopolitical and macroeconomic factors are pressuring the market. Analysts cite rising U.S.-EU trade tensions, particularly President Trump's announcement of a 10% tariff on Europe related to Greenland, and broader global uncertainties as key drivers of the risk-off sentiment. This has contributed to capital flowing out of crypto and into traditional safe havens like gold, which recently hit a record high of $4,680 an ounce.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has issued a stark warning, predicting Bitcoin could fall to between $58,000 and $62,000 within the next two weeks. Brandt points to a "rising wedge" pattern on daily charts, indicating fading upward momentum, and suggests a completion of this pattern could lead to a 33-37% drop from recent highs. He links the outlook to restrictive Federal Reserve interest rates (between 3.5% and 3.75%) and growing geopolitical friction.
Despite the bearish technical outlook, some institutional data offers a counterpoint. CoinShares reports crypto exchange-traded products saw recent inflows of over $1.5 billion, suggesting long-term accumulation continues. However, options market data from Deribit indicates a 30% chance Bitcoin trades below $80,000 by June. Additionally, on-chain activity shows early adopters moving significant holdings, with one 2013-era wallet transferring 909 BTC and another selling 500 BTC for a $48 million profit.
Melker remains bullish on Bitcoin's longer-term trajectory, expecting a new all-time high this year, though he refrains from attaching a specific price target. He argues that extreme price outcomes, such as a move toward $1 million, would involve sharp rallies that force analysts to abandon cautious language. Other firms maintaining constructive views include Galaxy, CoinShares, and Standard Chartered, which has revised its 2026 target down from $300,000 to $150,000.
