Bitcoin's price action is presenting a mixed technical picture, with short-term weakness clashing with longer-term bullish cycle analysis. On the daily chart, BTC has broken below a key upward trend line, raising concerns that the recent rally may have peaked. Analysts are closely watching the daily candle close to confirm the breakdown's validity. The move occurred as Bitcoin traded in a known resistance area where a short-term top was anticipated.
A first warning signal emerged when the price fell below last Friday's low, increasing the probability of a deeper pullback. Technical analysis suggests that in a bearish scenario, Bitcoin could be headed toward the $74,000–$75,000 range as the next major downside target if selling pressure persists. However, a short-term rebound is still possible if buyers step in strongly between $82,500 and $86,900, though this would likely be a corrective bounce rather than the start of a new sustained rally.
Key support zones are under scrutiny, including the $86,900 level, which aligns with a Fibonacci retracement and has acted as a buying area before. Other nearby levels from December are also being monitored. On shorter time frames, Bitcoin has already hit a near-term downside target around $90,800, with firm resistance remaining between $92,800 and $93,700. Analysts note that a clean, complete five-wave decline could signal the end of the corrective phase and set up a clearer recovery opportunity.
Contrasting this near-term caution, several analysts point to structural similarities between the current market and the 2020–2021 pre-bull cycle phase. Analyst Crypto GEMs highlights that Bitcoin is holding above prior resistance while forming higher lows, signaling a transition from accumulation to potential expansion. This fractal analysis, rooted in market psychology and supply dynamics, suggests a potential cycle peak above $200,000 by 2026 if historical patterns persist.
Furthermore, analyst Ted Pillows overlays Bitcoin price with year-over-year US liquidity growth, noting a strong historical relationship. US liquidity bottomed in November 2025, closely aligning with Bitcoin forming a local price low. Since that trough, liquidity conditions have begun to stabilize and trend upward from deeply negative levels. Historically, Bitcoin responds positively once liquidity contraction eases, often pricing in the shift ahead of time, which supports the accumulation thesis.
Adding to the structural argument, analyst Crypto King's analysis focuses on Bitcoin's behavior within a tightening volatility structure. Following a sharp correction, BTC entered a narrowing range marked by lower volatility and compressed movement, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers. The pattern suggests demand is absorbing sell pressure. Crypto King notes that when price exits such compression phases, the resulting move is often decisive, potentially aligning with the improving liquidity backdrop and longer-term cycle fractal to reinforce the probability of renewed expansion.
