On-chain data reveals a significant reduction in Bitcoin whale selling pressure, as inflows to major exchange Binance have collapsed in recent weeks. According to analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin inflows from whales to Binance have dropped sharply from a peak of nearly $8 billion to around $2.74 billion. This marks a clear slowdown in whale-linked sell-offs.
The data tracks transfers across three major whale categories: transactions of 100–1,000 BTC, 1,000–10,000 BTC, and those above 10,000 BTC. The decline across all groups suggests large holders are no longer rushing to move coins to exchanges, opting for patience over panic during the current market consolidation. This shift follows a recent aggressive sell-off where whales sold approximately 22,918 BTC (worth nearly $4 billion), triggering market panic, over $500 million in long liquidations, and pushing Bitcoin's price down by about 2.5% from around $97,000 to near $90,934.
Despite the easing whale pressure, the broader Bitcoin price outlook faces significant bearish risks. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has suggested BTC could still drop towards the $58,000–$62,000 range. Analysts point to Bitcoin's historical four-year market cycle, noting that bull markets typically peak around 530 days after a halving. If this pattern holds, the cycle's top may have formed near the recent all-time high of $125,000 in early October, potentially placing Bitcoin nearly 100 days into a new bear market.
Historical bear market declines of 70–80% from cycle peaks remain a possibility, which in an extreme scenario could target levels near $37,000. A key long-term support level is the 200-week moving average, currently near $57,000. On the daily chart, Bitcoin appears to be forming a bear flag pattern, a breakdown of which could quickly slide the price toward $70,000 or lower.
Adding to market concern was the recent movement of 909.38 BTC from a Satoshi-era wallet that had been inactive for over a decade. The coins, originally acquired when Bitcoin traded near $7, are now worth approximately $85 million. Analysts believe such transfers could be linked to off-chain settlements or synthetic selling, exerting indirect downward pressure on the price.
For now, Bitcoin is holding weekly support around $91,000. A break above the $92,000–$95,000 resistance could pave the way toward $100,000–$102,000. However, a loss of the $84,000–$92,000 support range could accelerate selling. Macro risks also persist, as Bitcoin remains correlated with traditional risk assets like the Nasdaq; a standard equity correction could push BTC back toward key support zones.
