ONDO, the token associated with real-world asset (RWA) protocols, is navigating a pivotal moment as its price has declined over 65% since October 2025, now trading near $0.33. This steep correction has erased most of its 2025 gains, with the token breaking down from a former consolidation range of $0.90–$1.00. The immediate focus is a massive token unlock of approximately 1.94 billion ONDO scheduled for January 18, 2026.
Despite the bearish price action and potential for panic selling typically associated with such unlocks, on-chain data from a CryptoQuant report suggests a different narrative is unfolding. The data indicates that larger market participants, or "whales," are actively accumulating ONDO during the decline. A key signal is the dominance of "Big Whale Orders" in the spot market, with accumulation concentrated in the $0.35–$0.40 price zone.
Furthermore, ONDO has entered a "Taker Buy Dominant" phase, where the 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) remains positive and rising. This shows that aggressive market buy pressure has outweighed sell pressure for months, a pattern analysts refer to as "taker alpha." The alignment of whale accumulation and taker buying during a price drop often signals supply absorption rather than distribution.
Analyst Crypto Patel highlights that ONDO's price is now compressing within a critical high-timeframe demand zone between $0.20 and $0.30. This area aligns with historical demand and previous impulse origins. He notes that weekly closes above $0.20 are crucial for maintaining the broader bullish structure. The market's ability to absorb the upcoming token unlock is seen as a major test; successful absorption would signal underlying strength, while failure could lead to further downside.
Looking ahead, analysts outline potential price targets extending toward $0.70, $1, $2, and even the $5–$10 range in the long term, contingent on the RWA narrative regaining momentum in 2026 and the current accumulation phase proving successful.
