According to a recent report by CryptoQuant, XRP's derivatives market on Binance is entering a transitional phase marked by rising volatility, but without the kind of leverage extremes that typically precede sharp market dislocations. Current data shows XRP open interest climbing to approximately $566.48 million, moving above its 30-day average of $528.84 million. This divergence indicates that fresh positions are being added to the market, though not at an aggressive or euphoric pace.
The more notable development lies in volatility dynamics. The 30-day rolling standard deviation of open interest (oi_std30) has risen to around $65.7 million, the highest level observed since November. Historically, rising standard deviation reflects widening dispersion in positioning and is often associated with markets preparing for larger directional moves.
Importantly, this increase is occurring without a corresponding surge in leverage excess. This restraint is visible in the 30-day Open Interest Z-Score, which currently sits near 0.57, a level well below thresholds typically associated with overheating or forced liquidations. Taken together, the data points to a cautious accumulation environment where volatility is expanding and participation is rising, but leverage remains controlled.
Simultaneously, market analysis from Zizcrypto reveals a tense on-chain setup. Recent buyers, those entering the market within the one-week to one-month (1W–1M) window, are accumulating XRP at levels below the cost basis of the six- to twelve-month (6M–12M) cohort. This means newer participants are purchasing XRP at lower prices than earlier buyers, creating psychological pressure on older, underwater holders who face unrealized losses.
XRP is currently trading at $1.93 according to CoinCodex data. This structure, which bears a striking resemblance to the market setup in February 2022, suggests XRP is at a critical juncture. If the price fails to rebound quickly, it could trigger selling from long-term holders, intensifying downward pressure. The market now faces a pivotal test: whether new buying can stabilize the price or if pressure from older investors will lead to capitulation.
