Crypto analyst DonAlt, known for accurately predicting XRP's 700% surge in 2024, has issued a cautious update on Bitcoin's price action. He describes BTC as being stuck in a "dead zone" or congestion range between $85,000 and $92,000, which has acted as both a resistance ceiling and a liquidity trap following post-ETF market turbulence.
DonAlt's analysis suggests that if Bitcoin fails to break back into the upper part of this range soon, it could decline toward $60,000, which would officially mark the start of a bear market. His baseline scenario hinges on broader "big-picture issues" related to an unspecified "Greenland narrative"; if these persist, BTC may break out of its current range, sacrificing short-term gains for longer-term accumulation. While a bullish reversal starting around $104,000 with a target of $150,000 is possible, the trader remains unconvinced of a genuine breakout until BTC can clear and hold above current levels.
The commentary extends to altcoins, with DonAlt calling Solana's (SOL) price action "the worst range in crypto" and expressing a preference for a decisive move over sideways indecision. He also noted a major long-term trendline failure for Litecoin (LTC), summarizing the situation as "unfortunate things are happening in the crypto world."
Contrasting this cautious outlook, historical data presents a bullish case for February. According to CryptoRank, February has been one of Bitcoin's best-performing months, posting positive returns in 13 of the last 15 years with an average gain of 14.3%. In key rebound years like 2023, 2021, 2017, and 2012, February acted as a catalyst for multi-month rallies.
The current setup mirrors classic pre-rally panic. On January 21, BTC plunged under $89,000 after peaking near $97,000 earlier in the month, liquidating $359 million in leveraged long positions over four sessions. This dip has historically acted as fuel for subsequent rallies. Bitcoin is now testing the $88,000-$86,000 support zone from November, potentially forming a double-bottom pattern.
If historical patterns hold and February sees a median gain of +12.2%, price targets stretch to a minimum of $99,500-$101,000 per BTC. A repeat of the strong February 2023 scenario could push prices toward $109,500 as early as next month. Analysts suggest that combining this seasonal trend with potential ETF inflows, early tax-related accumulation, and hopes for a macroeconomic pivot could bring the $100,000 target into reach sooner than many anticipate.
