An analysis by CoinMarketCap community contributor Zizcrypto reveals that XRP's current market structure mirrors patterns observed in February 2022. The data indicates that buyers from the past week to one month are accumulating tokens at price levels below the cost basis of the six-to-12-month holder cohort. This dynamic signifies that incremental capital is entering the market at cheaper valuations than those who bought in the prior cycle.
As a result, a significant portion of legacy XRP holders remain in an underwater position, making them more sensitive to price volatility. The analysis warns that if XRP fails to reclaim key technical levels, this cost-basis mismatch could translate into increased sell-side pressure. Earlier entrants may look to de-risk their positions on any price rebounds, effectively turning potential recoveries into distribution events.
The near-term key performance indicator is whether XRP's price action can narrow the gap between these holder cohorts. Alternatively, the market must watch for signs of distribution from these stressed holders as liquidity returns. The contributor advises monitoring follow-up on-chain commentary for signals on whether the current accumulation window is extending or beginning to break down.
