Bitcoin is trading in a fragile zone below $90,000, with bulls attempting to defend the $88,000 level to prevent a deeper correction. The cryptocurrency is currently testing a critical on-chain defense line, hovering around the realized cost basis of the freshest buyer cohorts. According to analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin is trading near the cost basis of the 0D-1D short-term holders (STH) at roughly $89,800 and the 1W-1M STH cohort near $90,000. This means investors who entered the market in recent weeks are sitting at breakeven, making this area highly sensitive to selling pressure.
Resistance above current levels is stacked, with the 1M-3M cohort's cost basis near $92,500 acting as a ceiling, and the aggregated STH realized price around $99,300 representing a major barrier. A key metric highlighting the fragile setup is the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH MVRV), which has dropped to 0.897, indicating this cohort is, on average, holding unrealized losses. This metric is approaching the lower boundary of its 155-day statistical range (near 0.875), a zone historically associated with market exhaustion and potential local bottom formation. A break below this level could signal extreme oversold conditions and raise the risk of short-term holder capitulation.
Simultaneously, Sonic (S) price is showing clear weakness, grinding at a major high-time-frame support region near $0.07. The token remains in a macro downtrend after losing its Point of Control (POC). The $0.07 level is a historically significant demand area, but its strength is being tested by persistently weak bullish volume. Technical analysis suggests that low volume at support indicates a lack of committed buyers, increasing the probability of a breakdown.
If Sonic loses the $0.07 support on a closing basis, the next move is likely to accelerate lower, potentially triggering a new yearly low. For the outlook to improve, Sonic needs to show clear signs of demand, including a strong bullish reaction candle from $0.07, rising volume during a bounce, and a reclaiming of key resistance levels. Currently, the lack of follow-through on recovery attempts keeps downside risk elevated.
