Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, in partnership with analytics firm Block Scholes, has released a new Crypto Derivatives Analytics report examining how recent geopolitical and interest rate shocks have impacted digital asset markets. The report, dated January 23, 2026, finds that crypto derivatives markets were largely unfazed by two major macro events: renewed tariff tensions between Europe and the United States related to Greenland, and a sudden spike in Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields.
The report details that these events weighed heavily on global risk sentiment, leading to price declines in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin retreated from near $97,000 to lows around $87,000, while Ethereum fell from approximately $3,300 to about $2,800 before both assets staged a modest recovery. The outsized move in JGBs, which coincided with shifts in longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields, broadly pressured risk assets.
Despite the sharp, macro-driven repricing, the crypto markets avoided disorderly selloffs. A key factor behind this resilience, according to the report, is the notable decline in market leverage since the liquidation cascade of October 2025. Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest fell by close to $400 million in the 24 hours preceding the report, and aggregate open interest across major altcoins remains well below pre-October levels. This reduction in leverage has lowered the risk of cascading forced selling.
Derivatives positioning showed little evidence of widespread panic. Implied volatility rose primarily at short-dated maturities, reflecting heightened near-term uncertainty, while mid- and longer-dated tenors saw only modest increases. Overall volatility continues to trend lower from its late November 2025 highs.
"Cryptos are rebounding slightly after the Greenland and JGB scares earlier this week, refusing to capitulate despite the sudden deterioration in the macro environment," said Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Bybit Learn. "Notably subdued leverage in the system likely capped the recent selloff, even as derivatives are not showing a marked increase in bearish positioning or a meaningful pickup in implied volatility."
The report also highlights the continued expansion of Ethereum staking activity despite the unsettled macro backdrop. Increased institutional participation and applications for staking-enabled exchange-traded products are supporting demand, even as the rising total stake has pushed staking yields below 3%.
Overall, the findings suggest that structural shifts in crypto market positioning, particularly lower leverage, have helped the digital asset markets absorb macro-driven shocks in a more measured and stable manner compared to past episodes.
