Cardano (ADA) is experiencing significant bearish pressure, with its price breaking below key support levels as spot trading volume on decentralized exchanges collapses by over 95% in just over two weeks. According to data from BeInCrypto and Dune Analytics, spot volume fell from a peak near $1.49 million on January 6 to roughly $68,552 by January 22, signaling a dramatic withdrawal of retail participation.
The technical structure has weakened considerably. ADA broke below its prior range support, sliding toward $0.360, and lost its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) in mid-January—a move that has historically preceded significant corrections. The token is down nearly 9% over the past seven days and remains capped below a key resistance band between $0.3855 and $0.3885.
Despite the bleak retail sentiment and bearish derivatives positioning, on-chain data reveals a contrasting narrative of whale accumulation. Addresses holding more than 1 billion ADA began adding to their positions around January 14, increasing combined holdings from 1.92 billion to 2.93 billion ADA—an accumulation worth approximately $360–$380 million during the downturn. A second cohort of wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA also started buying on January 17, adding about 30 million ADA ($11 million).
Meanwhile, derivatives traders have heavily shorted ADA, with $22.12 million in short leverage on perpetual futures. On Binance, short liquidation exposure is roughly 2.5 times larger than long exposure. This sets up a potential squeeze scenario; a price move above $0.37 could start forcing short positions to close, with more significant liquidation pressure building above $0.39. The bearish case would only regain full control if ADA sustains a break below $0.34.
