Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has formed an independent advisory board to assess and prepare for the long-term threat quantum computing poses to Bitcoin and other blockchain networks. The move comes as industry experts, including the chief business officer of Naoris Protocol, Youssef El Maddarsi, argue that the quantum threat is already active and that Bitcoin cannot afford a leisurely multi-decade upgrade path, contradicting more optimistic views from figures like Adam Back.
The newly established Coinbase Independent Advisory Board on Quantum Computing and Blockchain includes leading cryptographers and researchers such as Scott Aaronson, Dan Boneh, Justin Drake, Sreeram Kannan, Yehuda Lindell, and Dahlia Malkhi. The board will operate independently, publishing position papers and its first risk assessment on quantum resilience early next year to guide developers, institutions, and users.
The urgency is underscored by recent technological leaps. IBM claims its new generation of quantum chips and faster error-correction methods could enable the company to reach quantum advantage during 2026 and deliver early fault-tolerant systems by 2029. Furthermore, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned at a 2025 Devconnect conference that quantum computers could break elliptic-curve cryptography sooner than expected, possibly before the 2028 US election, advocating for a transition to quantum-resistant cryptography within a few years.
The practical risk is already quantifiable. A Deloitte report indicates roughly 4 million BTC, about 25% of all usable supply, sits in addresses with exposed public keys vulnerable to quantum attacks using Shor's algorithm. Researchers warn that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could derive private keys, enabling attackers to instantly drain these legacy wallets. This vulnerability extends to Ethereum and most blockchains relying on elliptic curve cryptography.
Upgrading Bitcoin is not a simple patch. According to researchers at the University of Kent, migrating Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant cryptosystem could require up to 75 days of downtime, potentially exceeding 300 days if the network operates at reduced capacity to limit attack vectors. Such a prolonged global outage for a trillion-dollar asset class is deemed unacceptable. Additionally, Bitcoin's governance culture, historically resistant to change, could spark ideological conflict and potential chain splits during a mandatory, high-stakes cryptographic overhaul.
Regulatory bodies are also accelerating timelines. The European Commission and EU member states have released a coordinated roadmap requiring member states to begin national post-quantum cryptography (PQC) strategies by 2026, with critical infrastructure adopting quantum-resistant encryption by 2030 and a full transition by 2035.
The market consequences of a delayed transition could be catastrophic. An attacker with quantum hardware could move millions of dormant coins, flooding exchanges and collapsing prices. A quantum miner could also undermine Bitcoin's proof-of-work decentralization, creating an oligopoly. Coinbase's initiative and the accompanying expert warnings highlight that the quantum clock is already ticking, and proactive industry-wide preparation is essential to avert a systemic crisis.
