A detailed technical analysis has surfaced, drawing a striking parallel between the current price structure of Kaspa (KAS) and Bitcoin's historical setup before one of its most powerful rallies. Analyst Yoriichi Tsugikuni (known as @YorichiiCrypto on X) shared a chart aligning Kaspa's extended consolidation phase and gradual upward pressure with Bitcoin's behavior before it broke out into an 803% advance.
The chart suggests Kaspa is at a comparable point on that historical roadmap, having spent months building a base with controlled demand rather than speculative spikes. If the pattern plays out similarly, applying Bitcoin's historical percentage gain to Kaspa could project a price target around $0.36. However, the analyst emphasizes this is a technical comparison, not a guaranteed outcome, and a similar move for KAS would require decisively breaking and holding above established resistance.
This bullish technical narrative is contrasted by a critical analysis from Finance Freeman, who identifies visibility and trading volume as Kaspa's core problem. Despite a market cap of around $1.2 billion, Kaspa's daily volume sits at approximately $19 million. This low volume-to-market-cap ratio creates a business disincentive for major exchanges to list KAS, as they earn from trading activity. Finance Freeman notes that listing Kaspa, a separate Layer 1, requires more integration effort than Ethereum or Solana-based tokens, and exchanges may question if the asset brings enough volume to justify the work.
Furthermore, Kaspa's proof-of-work (PoW) foundation introduces specific risks during prolonged price weakness. With a hash rate around 450 petahashes, miners face real costs for machines and electricity. If low fees and low prices make mining unprofitable for too long, miners may shut off, potentially impacting network security and stability. The analyst also points to Kaspa's rapid early emission schedule, where supply grew from about 1.3 billion to over 7 times that within a year, which can increase steady sell pressure from underwater miners needing to cover costs.
The path forward, according to Finance Freeman, hinges on whether the Kaspa ecosystem can grow through real usage (V Progs) that generates demand beyond the core community. Without improved volume and adoption, the project risks remaining in a cycle of low attention and liquidity. While the technical comparison to Bitcoin's early days provides an optimistic roadmap, the market today is far more crowded, and strong technology alone requires distribution to survive.
