Global cryptocurrency markets are facing a significant liquidity test on January 23, 2025, with the simultaneous expiry of $1.9 billion in Bitcoin options and $347 million in Ethereum options. According to definitive data from Deribit, the world's leading crypto options exchange, this substantial expiry represents a key test for market structure and trader positioning.
The Bitcoin options expiry carries a put/call ratio of 0.81, suggesting a marginally bullish bias among traders, as a figure below 1.0 typically indicates more call options (bets on price increases) than puts (bets on declines). The most critical metric is the max pain price, which sits at $92,000. This is the strike price at which the maximum number of options contracts would expire worthless, theoretically causing the least financial pain to option sellers. Market mechanics often see spot prices gravitate toward this level as expiry approaches.
Simultaneously, the Ethereum options market, with a $347 million notional value set to expire, shows a similar sentiment profile with a put/call ratio of 0.84. Ethereum's max pain price is identified at $3,200. The convergence of these expiries amplifies the day's importance for the overall digital asset ecosystem, testing the liquidity and resilience of both markets.
In a separate but related development, a massive leveraged Ethereum trade is under significant pressure. On-chain data reveals that one wallet on the Hyperliquid exchange holds a long ETH position worth approximately $650 million. The danger line for this position sits near $2,268, where the platform would force a liquidation to repay loans if ETH falls to that level.
This same wallet famously profited over $100 million during the October 2025 tariff chaos, but the current bet has accrued over $60 million in losses and fees combined. The wallet's position uses cross-margin, meaning all positions in the account share one pool of collateral, making the liquidation price dynamic rather than fixed.
Data from CoinGlass shows ETH leverage clusters between $2,800 and $2,600, then again near $2,400. If ETH slides through $2,400, this whale could join a liquidation cascade. While Hyperliquid typically liquidates inside the futures market first, arbitrage traders hedging gaps between futures and spot would push pressure into the wider market.
Analysts note that while the max pain price provides a useful reference, it is not a guaranteed magnet for price. Other macro factors, such as regulatory news, ETF flows, or broader equity market movements, can exert stronger influences. The hours leading up to and following the 8:00 a.m. UTC expiry window are frequently characterized by heightened trading activity as participants adjust their portfolios.
