Bitcoin's price is exhibiting remarkable stability, trading around $89,500-$90,000, despite a significant divergence in inflation readings and mounting geopolitical pressures. A real-time inflation tracker indicates U.S. inflation has fallen close to 1.2%, starkly contrasting with the official government figure of 2.7%. This real-time data, updated daily from millions of data points on online shopping, housing, food, and fuel, often leads official monthly reports.
Despite the positive signal of falling inflation—which typically supports easier monetary policy and potential rate cuts—Bitcoin has not reacted with a strong upward move. Analysts note the market is in a "wait-and-see" phase, with neither buyers nor sellers showing strong conviction. "Buyers aren't confident enough yet to step in aggressively," said David Dobrovitsky, CEO of Dobrovitsky Strategic Advisory, highlighting muted liquidity and momentum.
Geopolitical tensions are adding to the uncertainty. Rhetoric from former President Donald Trump regarding Greenland and the announcement of new 10% tariffs have introduced another layer of market pressure. A lack of clarity from the U.S. Supreme Court on presidential tariff authority has further contributed to the suspended state of the market.
Technically, Bitcoin remains within an upward price channel but faces immediate resistance near $91,200. A break above this level could unlock a move toward $95,900 and the psychological $100,000 mark. However, repeated failed attempts near $98,000 in recent weeks demonstrate persistent selling pressure. Analysts at Glassnode describe the current setup as a "moderate bear phase," with the market oscillating between support near $81,100 and the cost basis of short-term holders.
Institutional activity reflects the caution, with Bitcoin ETFs recording significant outflows of nearly $709 million on January 21, the largest single-day outflow since November 2025. Capital is concentrating in Bitcoin as many altcoins face structural devaluation, but this has not yet translated into sustained buying pressure for BTC. The market awaits clearer signals from future official inflation data and reduced geopolitical noise for its next decisive move.
