The meme coin market, known for its explosive rallies and sharp crashes, is currently in a period of low interest and drained liquidity, according to an interview with Matas Čepulis, Founder and CEO of LuvKaizen and Kolhq. He describes the current state as a "fear state" following a prolonged downturn, which he believes presents an opportunity for due diligence to identify future winners.
Čepulis highlights that the current cycle differs significantly from the 2021–2024 waves. Competition is now immense, with the barrier to launching a token being extremely low via platforms like Pump.Fun. Capital alone is no longer sufficient for success; tokens must be attractive from every angle. He notes that key opinion leader (KOL) marketing has become a challenging game, with many projects failing to gain traction due to poorly chosen influencers, as retail investors have grown wary of voices associated with past "rug pulls."
Solana has emerged as the dominant blockchain for meme coins this cycle, driven by early adoption, the role of Pump.Fun, and a natural narrative push from the Solana ecosystem itself. Čepulis states that as most capital flowed into memes, it naturally became Solana-based. While Ethereum has seen recent spikes and other networks like Monad have attempted to compete, he believes Solana and Ethereum already fulfill the needs of the meme coin space. Data shows Solana recently hit a three-month high in meme coin activity, indicating a healthy recovery.
The interview dispels the notion of a meme coin "supercycle," emphasizing that the segment's fate is intrinsically tied to Bitcoin's performance. "If BTC keeps growing, the rest of the industry will catch up," Čepulis stated. He explained that meme coins typically suffer devastating losses (90–99%) during broader market corrections but can deliver massive multiplier gains in bull markets.
Community is cited as the most critical element for a meme coin's survival today, surpassing pure speculation. Successful examples like Retardio demonstrate the power of a dedicated community. Narratives within the space shift rapidly, often reacting to daily news, such as the surge in drug-themed tokens following a $WEED launch.
Regarding trading, Čepulis advises extreme discipline and risk management, suggesting systematic trading is only feasible with the largest memes (market cap above $100 million). His key advice to traders is to know when to exit, coining the mantra: "Better to win 50% than lose 100%." He highlights projects like Milady, $CULT, Retardio, and SPX6900 as representative of the current market, noting that some, like $PEPE and $DOGE, have evolved beyond mere memes into established industry players used for payments.
