Prediction market platform Polymarket is showing growing optimism about the passage of landmark US cryptocurrency legislation. Users currently give the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) a 53% chance of being signed into law by the end of 2026. This represents a significant 12% increase in predicted odds, reflecting shifting sentiment among traders.
The Clarity Act, which passed the US House of Representatives in July 2025 with strong bipartisan support (294-134 vote), aims to bring much-needed regulatory clarity to the digital asset market. The legislation would divide regulatory authority between two agencies: the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would oversee security-like digital assets, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would handle commodity-like digital assets.
This regulatory framework is designed to reduce confusion for crypto companies, help them determine which rules apply to their projects, and potentially encourage innovation while reducing incentives to operate offshore. The prediction comes amid substantial trading activity on Polymarket, with over $35,000 in volume tied to this specific market.
Despite recent setbacks—including a canceled Senate Banking Committee markup in January 2026—insiders remain confident. They report that compromises between lawmakers could still ensure the Act's passage. The 53% odds on Polymarket reflect this cautious optimism, suggesting traders believe the US will provide clearer crypto rules that could strengthen the domestic digital asset market.
The crypto industry has long faced regulatory uncertainty, with many projects risking unintentional law violations. Clear guidelines would make it easier for startups to launch compliant platforms and give investors greater confidence in US-based crypto projects. Policymakers argue the Act is necessary to balance innovation with investor protection while preventing regulatory overlap and enforcement confusion.
If passed in 2026, the Clarity Act could stimulate significant growth in the US digital asset market by encouraging more projects to operate domestically rather than moving abroad. Prediction markets like Polymarket provide a unique window into public sentiment on such legislative developments, with the current 53% probability indicating neither overwhelming confidence nor pessimism about the bill's prospects.
