Analysts Warn Quantum Computing Poses Long-Term Threat to Bitcoin and Crypto Security

Jan 29, 2026, 4:04 p.m. 7 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Long-term quantum computing threat may shift institutional focus towards quantum-resistant blockchains like Ethereum.
  • The limited vulnerability of 1-2 million BTC suggests systemic risk is low, supporting current price consolidation.
  • Investors should monitor developments in quantum-resistant cryptography as a key long-term security metric.

Financial analysts from Schwab Network and Wall Street broker Benchmark have highlighted quantum computing as a significant, albeit distant, long-term threat to Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. The discussion emerges as Bitcoin's price consolidates near $90,000, with traders focused on key support and resistance levels.

In a recent segment, Schwab Network's Nate Peterson identified quantum computing as "probably the number one threat... to Bitcoin and crypto in general." This concern is echoed in institutional circles, with BlackRock citing quantum risk in its Bitcoin ETF filings and Coinbase forming a strategic Quantum Advisory Board to address the issue. Ethereum developers are also proactively working on quantum-resistant cryptography.

Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer provided a detailed technical assessment in a report, calling the risk "real but distant." He explained that the primary vulnerability lies in the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used to secure private keys, not the SHA-256 mining algorithm. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically derive a private key from a public address in minutes, but such machines do not currently exist and are unlikely to emerge for 10–20 years or more.

Palmer noted that only an estimated 1–2 million BTC (held in addresses with exposed public keys, such as early "Satoshi-era" coins) are theoretically vulnerable. He stressed that the protocol has both the time and technical flexibility to adapt, and that even a successful attack on some coins would not pose a systemic risk to Bitcoin's integrity. The near-term price drivers for Bitcoin remain liquidity, regulation, and institutional adoption.

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