The Zcash (ZEC) price is at a pivotal moment, with technical indicators signaling a potential breakdown while a notable rotation of capital is occurring from the established privacy coin into a new competitor on Solana. ZEC, which rallied from double digits to around $700 in 2025, pushing its market cap to $11-12 billion, is now showing signs of exhaustion.
A classic profit-taking and repositioning scenario is unfolding. Large ZEC wallets are reportedly rotating into GhostWareOS (GHOST), a full-stack privacy layer built on the Solana blockchain. This shift is partly driven by a cooling interest in crypto presales among large traders, who now favor listed tokens with verifiable on-chain liquidity—a niche GHOST is filling.
Concurrently, ZEC's technical structure is weakening. A head-and-shoulders pattern is forming on the daily chart, with a neckline near $301. A breakdown below this level could trigger a 36% decline. Momentum is stalling, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failed to push higher during a recent price consolidation, indicating fading buyer demand.
Derivatives data adds to the bearish pressure. On Binance's ZEC perpetual pair, over $15 million is positioned in short liquidation leverage, outweighing long leverage by more than 2.5x. This signals strong market conviction that a breakdown is imminent.
However, a counter-narrative is emerging from the spot market. Despite the broader defensive posture, the top 100 ZEC addresses increased their holdings by 4.21% in the past 24 hours, adding 44,264 ZEC. This cautious accumulation by mega whales suggests they may be betting on a reversal or that the $301 support will hold. Spot buying pressure has sharply declined, with net outflows dropping 87% to around $2.04 million.
The immediate price levels are critical. A daily close below $301 activates the full bearish pattern, targeting $288 and lower. Conversely, reclaiming $405 would weaken the bearish case, with stability returning above $456. The market's direction hinges on whether the mega whales' support can counter the overwhelming bearish positioning and technical risks.
