Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has disclosed a profitable strategy on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, netting approximately $70,000 in profit by betting against what he terms "crazy mode"—markets gripped by extreme, fear-driven narratives.
In an interview with Foresight News, Buterin explained his approach involves identifying contracts where traders are speculating on highly unlikely scenarios. He cited examples such as a bet on whether former US President Donald Trump would win a Nobel Peace Prize and the idea of the US dollar hitting zero by 2027, treating these as emblematic of overblown panic rather than serious forecasts.
Buterin committed roughly $440,000 to Polymarket and realized the $70,000 profit on a 2025 bet, representing a return of about 16%. He argued that "betting against market hype" is where the edge lies, allowing rational players to extract value when emotions distort pricing.
Web3 entrepreneur and Dastan CEO Loxley Fernandes supported this view, stating that such rational trading not only profits the individual but also helps "bring prices back to reality," which is the core function of prediction markets. Buterin also referenced the fragility of oracle design, noting an instance where users saw returns above 33,000% on $1.3 million in volume—a risk concentration he said designers "never anticipated."
The news comes as broader crypto markets show slight weakness, with Bitcoin trading near $76,937 and Ethereum around $2,269 at the time of reporting.
