Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating above key support levels following a rebound from intraday lows near $4,660 to close around $4,887. Analysts highlight the $4,600–$4,700 zone as a resilient area of institutional buying that has repeatedly absorbed selling pressure. The rebound comes amid a mix of macroeconomic uncertainty, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and safe-haven flows driven by factors like renewed USA-Iran conflict probability.
Technically, the metal reversed up from a major support area between the pivotal level of 4540.00, the 20-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October impulse. This created a daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern (Hammer), suggesting potential for further upward movement. A head-and-shoulders breakout on the charts is also being watched, with a successful retest of the neckline signaling a potential medium-term trend shift.
Key price levels are in focus. Primary resistance is seen in the $4,950–$5,000 zone, with a break above $5,000 on meaningful volume needed to confirm bullish follow-through towards $5,100–$5,200 and even illustrative long-term targets like $5,200 and $5,200.00. On the downside, support is layered at $4,780, $4,680–$4,600, and a key level at $4,520. A sustained close below $4,780 would indicate a continuation of the neutral-to-bearish corrective phase.
The macro context reinforces gold's role as a hedge. Federal Reserve commentary, firm yields, delayed rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions are contributing to rotational flows. Market observers note that institutional accumulation patterns differ from retail buying, with volume and orderly retests indicating structured accumulation. As market participant @cryptosanthoshK commented, the recovery is driven by "broader macro conditions rather than short-term speculation."
