Ethereum (ETH) is approaching a critical historical support level of $1,959, as identified by the Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio, signaling a potential market bottom and buying opportunity. Analyst Ali Charts highlighted that Ethereum's price has historically formed cycle bottoms when it falls below the 0.80 MVRV band, which currently sits near $1,959.
Current Market Position and Historical Context
As of early February 2026, Ethereum is trading around $2,322-$2,449, representing a decline of over 50% from its peak. The MVRV ratio has dropped to approximately 0.87, its lowest level since December 2022. This metric indicates the average holder is currently at a loss, which historically reduces selling pressure and creates conditions for accumulation.
Historical Precedents for Rebound
Historical data shows significant rallies following periods where ETH traded below the 0.80 MVRV band. In July 2020, when Ethereum last fell below this band, the price subsequently rallied by more than 1,500% by December 2021. A similar pattern was observed in Q2 2022 when ETH dropped below $900 before rallying to over $4,000.
On-Chain Activity and Institutional Sentiment
On-chain data reveals sophisticated accumulation by long-term holders. Lookonchain reported two wallets, inactive for nearly five years, executed a leveraged strategy using Aave V3. They deposited 44,490 ETH (worth ~$98.3M) as collateral, borrowed 104 million USDT, and purchased an additional 45,319 ETH at an average price of $2,295, demonstrating strong conviction.
Furthermore, approximately 2.6 million ETH tokens have been accumulated within the $3,180 to $2,800 price range, indicating significant capital investment. Analyst Ali Martinez identifies a key accumulation and support zone between $2,100 and $2,250. Maintaining this level could pave the way for a rebound toward $2,800-$3,000.
Market Outlook and Critical Levels
The convergence of an oversold MVRV ratio, multi-year technical support, and strategic whale accumulation points to the potential formation of a cycle bottom. While near-term volatility persists, the $1,959 level, defined by the 0.80 MVRV band, remains the ultimate critical support to watch. A breach below the $2,100-$2,250 zone could test this cycle bottom, whereas holding above it increases the likelihood of a significant price recovery.
