Veteran chartist Peter Brandt has identified Bitcoin's current eight-day downtrend as a calculated "campaign selling" event, where institutional-sized flows are systematically reducing exposure to the cryptocurrency. Brandt's technical analysis points to two critical price levels: the already-breached $70,000 and a more ominous target of $63,800, derived from a measured move following a recent rising wedge breakdown.
Price action confirms significant stress. Since the start of 2026, BTC has broken down from its wedge pattern, lost key short-term moving averages, and faced continuous liquidation pressure. Over $850 million was wiped out in liquidations in a single 24-hour period, with the $63,802.54 target aligning with breakdown dynamics similar to the October 2023 collapse.
Data from crypto analyst Tracer (DeFiTracer) reveals the scale of the institutional sell-off. In a concentrated two-hour window, major exchanges executed massive sales: Binance offloaded 23,152 BTC, Coinbase moved 6,859 BTC, and Kraken released 19,181 BTC. Additional whale entities sold thousands more coins. Combined liquidations during this period crossed $3.5 billion, overwhelming short-term demand and rapidly weakening order books.
Institutional demand is further weakening, as Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $544.94 million in net outflows on February 4, according to BSCN data. This withdrawal coincided with BTC slipping below $71,000. Sustained outflows typically signal caution among large allocators and remove a key support zone that previously sustained rallies.
Adding a longer-term bearish perspective, investment firm Stifel has warned that Bitcoin could potentially revisit the $38,000 level. Their analysis, cited by Coin Bureau, is based on historical cycle patterns, pointing to risks from tighter Federal Reserve policy, slowing U.S. crypto regulation, shrinking liquidity, and persistent ETF outflows. Market sentiment has already sunk into "extreme fear" territory.
Brandt emphasizes that his projection is a technical playbook based on historical repetition, not speculative guessing. The current pain is not isolated to crypto, with equities and commodities also deep in the red, suggesting a broader synchronized deleveraging phase. The market's direction now hinges on whether this concentrated selling pressure fades or expands in the coming weeks.
