Bullish Exchange Reports $563.6M Q4 Loss Amid Crypto Volatility, Shares Drop Despite Revenue Beat

5 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Bullish's massive GAAP losses highlight the ongoing risk of non-cash volatility for crypto-native firms despite operational growth.
  • The sharp January revenue decline suggests a cooling crypto trading environment that could pressure exchange stocks near-term.
  • Strong institutional metrics like BTC options open interest contrast with weak retail trends, signaling a bifurcated market focus.

Bullish (BLSH), the cryptocurrency exchange, reported a significant net loss of $563.6 million on a GAAP basis for the fourth quarter of 2025, despite exceeding analyst expectations for adjusted revenue and earnings per share. The company posted adjusted revenue of $92.5 million, beating the forecast of $87.8 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.19, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.15.

The massive GAAP loss, equating to $3.73 per share, was primarily attributed to non-cash digital asset remeasurement losses driven by cryptocurrency market volatility. For the full year 2025, GAAP losses widened to $785.5 million, even as full-year adjusted revenue grew to $288.5 million from 2024 levels.

Operationally, Bullish expanded its footprint significantly. After launching spot crypto trading services in the United States in September, the platform generated $64.3 billion in spot trading volume during Q4. The company also introduced an options trading business, which reached $9 billion in quarterly volume and secured the second position for Bitcoin (BTC) options open interest, which climbed to $4 billion.

CEO Tom Farley expressed confidence in the company's institutional-focused strategy, stating, "We are more convicted than ever that our institutional positioning is the right approach," and expects Bullish to "thrive in 2026." The company also secured a role as a leading indexer for digital-asset ETPs and expanded its regulatory standing.

However, the financial report revealed concerning near-term trends. Revenue for January 2026 fell 17% month-over-month and was 32% below the Q4 2025 average, indicating a slowdown in trading activity at the start of the new year. This data tempered optimism following the strong quarterly growth.

Market reaction was negative, with Bullish shares (BLSH) falling 5% during the trading session following the earnings release, closing at $27.20. The drop coincided with a broader crypto market decline, with Bitcoin's price falling over 7% and trading below $70,000.

Analysts offered mixed reactions. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel called the Q4 performance "strong" but maintained a Neutral rating, placing his $35 price target under review due to crypto valuation concerns and the lack of detailed quarterly guidance for 2026. Oppenheimer's Owen Lau noted that guidance for Subscriptions, Services & Other revenue for 2026 came in slightly above estimates, suggesting potential stability and nearly 50% growth at the midpoint.

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