Hedera (HBAR) is experiencing a period of significant market tension, with conflicting technical signals and fundamental weaknesses creating uncertainty about its future price trajectory. While some analysts maintain long-term bullish targets of $1 by 2030 based on structural breakouts, current on-chain data and price action paint a more concerning short-term picture.
As of early February 2026, HBAR is trading around $0.091-$0.092, representing a decline of nearly 47% over the past three months and approximately 84% below its all-time high of $0.57 recorded in September 2021. The token's market capitalization stands at $3.93 billion with a 24-hour trading volume of $161.04 million, indicating continued market participation despite the downtrend.
A critical concern is the dramatic collapse in Hedera's Total Value Locked (TVL). Data shows TVL has plummeted from around $122.5 million in September to approximately $56 million—a decline of more than 50%. This indicates a significant outflow of capital from Hedera's DeFi ecosystem, suggesting weakening network activity and user participation. Analysts note that this fundamental weakness has been driving the price decline, which appears gradual due to steady liquidity drainage rather than a sudden crash.
Technical analysis reveals a bearish structure. HBAR has been trading within a falling channel since September, with the price action characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Momentum indicators are mixed: the 14-day RSI sits at 35.39, below neutral but not yet in extreme oversold territory, while the MACD shows a decelerating downside pressure. However, a breakdown of the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator signals that selling pressure is accelerating and broader market participation is deteriorating.
The immediate price outlook suggests significant downside risk. Charts indicate that if HBAR breaks below the $0.080-$0.076 support zone—a level established since the October 2024 crash—it could trigger a further decline toward $0.062, with a worst-case channel projection pointing to $0.043. This represents a potential 30% drop from current levels. For any meaningful recovery, HBAR must first reclaim the $0.107 resistance level, with a move above $0.134 needed to break the prevailing bearish channel structure.
Contrasting this bearish view, analyst Javon Marks highlights a longer-term bullish structure. He points out that HBAR remains more than 93% above its pre-breakout price from a long-standing resisting trend, with a potential upside extension target near $0.504—representing over 420% growth from pre-breakout levels. This structural perspective forms the basis for optimistic 2030 price forecasts targeting the $1 mark, contingent on sustained macro liquidity and network relevance.
The market currently lacks supportive institutional catalysts. Spot HBAR ETFs have shown no significant inflows over recent weeks, depriving the token of potential institutional capital that could stabilize prices. While the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows a bullish divergence with some accumulation by larger investors since mid-December, it remains below zero, indicating that outflows still dominate overall capital flows.
In summary, Hedera faces a critical test of its underlying support levels. The combination of collapsing TVL, weak ETF demand, and deteriorating technical indicators creates substantial near-term risk. Any sustainable recovery will likely require a reversal in on-chain fundamentals, specifically a rebound in TVL and renewed institutional interest through ETF inflows.
