In a notable shift of institutional perspective, JPMorgan Chase strategists have declared Bitcoin (BTC) as "even more attractive" than gold for long-term investors. This assessment follows a period of extreme divergence where gold has outperformed Bitcoin by approximately 70% since October 2025. The bank interprets this not as a structural shift away from Bitcoin, but as a valuation imbalance that now favors the cryptocurrency on a risk-adjusted basis.
A key pillar of JPMorgan's argument is the dramatic compression in Bitcoin's volatility relative to gold. The bank's report notes the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has collapsed to a record low of 1.5. Strategists, including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, argue this makes Bitcoin meaningfully undervalued compared to gold, especially given its historical tendency to trade at much higher relative volatility. JPMorgan views this stability as evidence of Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class.
The analysis also revisits the long-term store-of-value narrative. JPMorgan estimates that if Bitcoin were to capture the total private sector investment in gold—roughly $8 trillion—its implied price would reach about $266,000 per coin. The bank clarified this is a theoretical framework to illustrate potential upside, not a formal price forecast.
Despite the bullish long-term view on Bitcoin, JPMorgan simultaneously raised its year-end 2026 gold price target to $6,300 per ounce, citing robust central bank demand expectations of 800 tonnes for 2026 and geopolitical hedging. This target was initially reported by Reuters and reiterated by the bank. The current environment is characterized by a sentiment-driven split: strong enthusiasm for gold alongside deep aversion toward Bitcoin, which the bank believes may set up Bitcoin's longer-term opportunity.
The report also touches on market mechanics. It notes Bitcoin recently traded near $70,000, below its estimated production cost of roughly $87,000, a scenario that historically coincides with late-stage corrections as inefficient miners exit. Meanwhile, gold's bid is backed by substantial ETF inflows, with World Gold Council data showing global gold ETF holdings increased by 801 tonnes in 2025—the second-strongest year on record—and U.S. gold-backed ETF demand reached 437 tonnes.
