Sonic (S) price is trading towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $0.03 as oversold conditions intensify, keeping bearish momentum firmly in control. The token has remained under heavy selling pressure following a decisive breakdown from its prior high-timeframe structure, struggling to attract bullish participation.
From a technical perspective, Sonic continues to print a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows. A key development has been the loss of the high-timeframe point of control (POC), which has now flipped into resistance. Each attempt to reclaim this level has been rejected, reinforcing the broader bearish bias. The current decline has unfolded on consistently low volume, suggesting a lack of aggressive dip buying rather than capitulation. This low-volume behavior often indicates trend continuation.
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension at approximately $0.03 represents an important short-term inflection point. Despite oversold conditions flashing caution—with Bollinger Bands analysis showing price trading near the lower band—these conditions alone are not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal. Any bullish reaction would still be classified as a counter-trend move unless Sonic reclaims key resistance levels with strong volume confirmation.
Concurrently, Bitcoin is struggling to stabilize around the $75,000 level as broader market weakness continues. According to analysis from On-Chain Mind, assessing whether Bitcoin is approaching a bear market bottom requires focusing on structural stress across the network, captured by the Cap Loss Ratio. This metric compares Realized Cap to Market Cap; spikes reflect widespread unrealized losses and collective pain.
Historical analysis shows that in previous downturns, the Cap Loss Ratio reached progressively lower peak levels as the market matured: above 0.5 in 2015, around 0.4 in 2018–2019, and closer to 0.3 in 2022. On-Chain Mind argues that final capitulation in the current cycle would most likely occur with the Cap Loss Ratio between 0.1 and 0.2, a zone the market has not yet reached.
Bitcoin's chart reveals a clear shift in market structure on the weekly timeframe. BTC has decisively broken the rising trend previously sustained by the 50-week moving average and is now trading below both the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. This historically signals a transition into a corrective phase. The price remains above the upward-sloping 200-week moving average, confirming the macro uptrend is intact, but momentum favors the downside in the medium term.
