Predictors on the Myriad prediction market platform have swung overwhelmingly bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting the sharp downturn in crypto markets. Bitcoin recently fell to a 15-month low, trading around $65,207, down over 11% in 24 hours and nearly 48% from its October 2026 all-time high of $126,080. A new Myriad market asks whether BTC will next 'pump' to $84,000 or 'dump' to $55,000, with early odds giving a 68% chance to the bearish $55,000 target. This level is near Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, a key technical level analysts are watching.
Ethereum has not been spared, falling below $2,000 for the first time since May 2025 and trading around $1,919. A corresponding Myriad market gives a 71% chance that ETH will next dump to $1,500, representing a 15% shift towards bearishness in a week. The market drawdown has erased gains made since crypto-friendly President Donald Trump took office.
Analysts point to a lack of near-term catalysts for both assets. The next potential relief could come from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in March, should a rate cut occur. Meanwhile, institutional outflows are pressuring Ethereum, with Ethereum ETFs seeing $2.5 billion in outflows over the last 30 days according to CoinGlass. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has also been selling ETH to fund the Ethereum Foundation and his charity, Kanro, while stressing the need for a 'new path' for Ethereum scaling.
The broader context involves a significant liquidity squeeze, highlighted by the October 10, 2026 ('10/10') deleveraging event. Darius Sit, co-founder of QCP Capital, explained that this event revealed a stark liquidity divide between Bitcoin and the altcoin complex. He noted that crypto exchanges, acting as single points of failure, often resort to 'socialized loss' during crises—closing profitable positions to cover losses—which erodes market trust and creates a structural discount for assets beyond Bitcoin.
Sit argues that comparing Bitcoin to gold is flawed due to scale, calling it a 'mouse versus an elephant' comparison. While gold's market dominance reflects sovereign demand and entrenched structure, Bitcoin's recent lag is attributed more to position unwinds than a collapse of its long-term thesis as an inflation hedge and collateral asset.
