The cryptocurrency industry is holding its breath for the upcoming release of Form 13F filings, due on February 17, 2026, in hopes they will reveal the cause of the catastrophic market crash on October 10, 2025. The filings, mandatory quarterly disclosures to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets under management, were originally due on February 14 (Valentine's Day). However, the deadline was pushed to the next business day, February 17, due to the date falling on a Saturday followed by the Presidents' Day holiday.
The October 10 crash was one of the most severe in crypto history, resulting in over $19 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated within approximately 24 hours. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped sharply, while many altcoins experienced even steeper declines. The event triggered widespread speculation about its root cause, with initial theories pointing to macro and geopolitical factors.
Analysts and industry figures are now speculating that the 13F filings for Q4 2025 could expose a "smoking gun." The theory is that a major institutional player, potentially outside the crypto-native ecosystem and based in Asia, had massive exposure to Bitcoin via spot ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT or related equities and was heavily liquidated during the crash. The filings could show unexplained disappearances of large holdings, sharp reductions in ETF positions, or anomalies from filers with outsized crypto allocations.
Franklin Bi, a general partner at Pantera Capital, speculated the crash was linked to "someone large outside of crypto, likely based in Asia, with very few crypto-native counterparties." This would explain why the entity hasn't been identified within crypto circles ("CT").
Further analysis points to the role of institutional products in amplifying the downturn. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggested BTC sold off because banks like Morgan Stanley were hedging positions tied to the IBIT ETF through structured notes. A forced unwind of these heavily leveraged positions on February 5, 2026, led to record trading volume of $10.7 billion and $900 million in options premiums.
Despite the turmoil, there are tentative signs of stabilization. The IBIT Bitcoin ETF recently recorded its first $200+ million inflow in nearly a month, and Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) jumped 65% in under a week, suggesting institutional investors may be cautiously returning. However, industry leaders like Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy remain skeptical that the 13F filings will provide a definitive answer, noting the opaque nature of traditional finance positions.
