Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, has presented a contrarian analysis arguing that Bitcoin's current lack of correlation with gold is a bullish signal, not a sign of weakness. In early February 2026, Wood highlighted that since 2019–2020, Bitcoin and gold have maintained a very low correlation of roughly 0.14, meaning their price movements are no longer synchronized. While gold has surged to new highs, Bitcoin remains approximately 50% below its all-time peak, creating a visible divergence.
Wood framed this disconnect as a familiar historical setup. Her analysis, shared via ARK Invest Tracker, indicates that "gold has historically moved first." In the last two major Bitcoin bull cycles, strong gold performance preceded large Bitcoin rallies by several months, rather than occurring simultaneously. From this perspective, gold's current strength while Bitcoin lags is consistent with prior cycle behavior.
Wood emphasized Bitcoin's structural scarcity advantage over gold. She noted that gold supply can expand when prices rise as miners increase production. Bitcoin, by contrast, has a mathematically fixed issuance schedule governed by protocol rules. This underpins her view that Bitcoin is structurally more scarce, particularly in environments where investors seek protection against monetary expansion.
Wood pointed out that as of February 2026, gold's market capitalization relative to U.S. M2 money supply has reached 150%–170%, levels last seen during the Great Depression. Historically, such extremes were followed by periods where other assets, like equities, outperformed gold. Based on these conditions, Wood argued that aggressive investors may consider rotating from gold into Bitcoin in 2026, expecting superior performance due to Bitcoin's asymmetric upside and growing institutional adoption.
ARK Invest's 2026 analysis also highlights Bitcoin's role as a portfolio diversifier. Data from 2020 to 2026 shows persistently low correlations: Bitcoin-Gold at 0.14, Bitcoin-Bonds at 0.06, and Bitcoin-S&P 500 at 0.28. These contrast sharply with traditional pairings like S&P 500–REITs at 0.79. Wood also commented on evolving market dynamics, noting that rising Japanese interest rates and tighter U.S. liquidity reflect Bitcoin's growing role in global finance. She stated, "We wouldn't be surprised if gold continued to come down to Bitcoin's benefit," and that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle of sharp rallies and deep crashes is now breaking, with the current downturn potentially being the mildest in its history.
