Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy has publicly dismissed widespread rumors of an impending major crypto firm collapse, despite Bitcoin's sharp 20% drop on February 5, 2026. Gaevoy argues that current speculation lacks the credible sourcing and private channel confirmation patterns that preceded past disasters like the collapses of Three Arrows Capital (3AC) and FTX.
Gaevoy contrasted the present situation with the clear warning signs of previous blow-ups. He noted that during the 3AC collapse following Terra's crash, and FTX's downfall after talks with Binance surfaced, the severity became obvious to industry insiders within days via direct messages. "These collapses left unmistakable footprints across the industry," he stated. In contrast, current rumors are primarily fueled by anonymous accounts without credible confirmation.
A fundamental shift in leverage structures is a key reason for increased market resilience. Gaevoy highlighted that previous cycles relied on opaque, uncollateralized lending platforms like Genesis and Celsius, which concealed systemic risk. Today, leverage primarily flows through perpetual futures contracts, which allow for more orderly liquidations. Exchanges have also significantly improved margin management, with auto-deleveraging mechanisms now in place to protect platforms from customer blowups and prevent cascading failures.
Legal consequences in regulated markets also add credibility to official denials. Gaevoy emphasized that firms based in jurisdictions like the US, Europe, the UK, or Singapore face serious prosecution risks for falsely denying bankruptcy, making such denials more credible. "This isn't a free bluff opportunity," he said.
While the market remains shaken—with altcoins suffering significant losses following Bitcoin's October 10, 2025 crash—Gaevoy and other analysts see no evidence of a systemic spillover. Rumors have pointed to an overleveraged Asian trading firm liquidating BTC positions via spot ETFs as a potential catalyst. However, the consensus is that improved exchange risk controls and the shift to derivative-based exposure have created a more robust system than during the 2022 crisis.
